My friends, the trade deadline (in most leagues) is this week, and that means our time together is coming to a close. You still have a couple of days left to get those last-minute trades done to prepare those teams for the playoffs. This week I am back with both redraft and dynasty trade values all in one place! Please make sure you are using the correct chart when looking at trades. If you are in a redraft league and see 2024 picks on the chart, scroll up.
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There is a lot in this post, so I wanted to highlight the methods and “how to” sections for each chart type.
This will be the last edition of the trade value charts for the 2022 season. I am sad but relieved. I am tired.
Redraft Trade Value Charts
Reddit Adjusted Trade Value Charts with a twist
Under the moniker PeakedInHighSkool, I have been producing trade value charts over on Reddit and my Patreon for several years now, and I am excited to be collaborating with the awesome team here at The Athletic to make an exclusive bi-weekly edition.
I started the process to model fantasy football trade values in 2017 based on some negative complaints on Reddit (shocking, I know). Linear positional ranks seemed to be solid, but the relationships between positions had some bias, particularly at the top and the bottom of traditional charts. So I went into the arduous task of trying to correct these observed issues using crowd-sourced data from Reddit. In case you aren’t familiar with Reddit, there is a weekly trade thread where users can post individual players, and other users will respond with your momma jokes“reasonable” trades they have seen or think might get accepted. There are often hundreds or thousands of responses of varying quality.
What I did (and still do) was to go through and look for cross-over points between positions. Where people do a one-for-one trade of a running back for a wide receiver/tight end/quarterback and used these deals to adjust linear ranks in terms of each other. I used these inputs to build an empirical model that defines positional value in terms of running back value. I feed in seed data each week (Expert Consensus Ranks) and generate updated weekly Trade Value Charts.
I am super excited to be working with the expert rankers here at The Athletic, and using their exclusive ranks as the seed data for my model. You can’t find these anywhere else!
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How to use these charts
My goal was to make these as user-friendly as possible. I did this by creating two different formats. First are the embedded images that are for specific formats. Second is an exclusive CSV file I created that all The Athletic users can download and play with.
The leftmost column is the player’s trade value. All players in that particular row have the same trade value. This is the best way to look for even one-for-one positional swap trades (i.e. running back for wide receiver). When you are looking at larger trades like a two-for-one, make sure to sum the trade values on each side to look for fairness. Typically, the side selling the most players needs to overpay for the right to consolidate and open up a roster spot. Not all trades need to be perfectly even, but they should be relatively close. The goal is to look for win-win trades and to keep the league happy and healthy!
Redraft Trade Value Charts
Excel File
Dynasty Trade Value Charts
Based on popular request, here is a downloadable Excel sheet version
What is different with this chart?
I was able to partner here with the experts at The Athletic to make a special edition of the dynasty trade value chart. I did this by generating exclusive values based on the experts here and then comparing those values vs. my published market (ECR) version of the chart. The ECR (+/-) column can be used to find which players the experts here want you to buy or sell and help identify some key market deficiencies! That way you can really get an edge on your league mates.
For example, Javonte Williams’ trade value is calculated to be 61, a full 6 points higher than the consensus! There’s some potential value you might be able to gain if you can trade for him at a value of 56. Use this chart to look for those buys or sells and make some offers.
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How to use a trade value chart
These are tools to make your life easier! The left-most column is the assigned trade value for a row. All players and picks in a row have the same value and, in theory, could be traded for each other. Players are separated into columns by position. The ECR column is calculated based on my “Reddit Adjusted” column that I publish on Patreon, Twitter, and Reddit. Plus (+) means the trade value here is above ECR and minus (-) is the inverse.
If you are looking at larger trades (i.e. 2-for-2 or 3-for-3) you just sum the sides of each trade to get an idea of fairness. Make sure to account for consolidating depth and trying to acquire stud players by overpaying. These are really a guideline to look for reasonable trades.
How I make these charts
The backbone of my model is seeded by expert consensus ranks that I aggregate from as many published sources as I can find. The goal is to try and average as much of the market as I can into one analysis. I feed the ranks into my database (clean up the names) and average positional ranks before running them through my model. Next, I assign rank-based trade values built on historic values as a function of positional scarcity. In all my models, running backs are the backbone, and then WRs, TEs, and QB values are determined based on a function of nearby RB values. The dynasty rookie picks are a lot more complex. So, I manually go through crowdsource data (Twitter polls, KTC, etc.) and create a high- and low-value range for groups of picks (early, mid, late). Post-NFL draft, the current year rookie picks get a little easier to add to the chart. I will compare picks to other players at all positions to try and dial in the placement.
The 2023 picks are higher than normal n+1 rookie picks would be due to insane hype. The 2024 picks are about where I would expect n+2 picks to be located. They lose value due to not being relevant for two years. I like scoring points and winning this year.
Closing
Make sure you are looking at the right chart for your league format. I know there is a lot in this post. Good luck, my friends!
If you have any trade questions, drop them in the comments and we will try to answer them!
(Top photo: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports)
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